Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.052790 0.059969 0.067997 0.077681 0.089103 0.102216 0.118509
2026-01-25 0.042049 0.050940 0.061706 0.075849 0.094157 0.117364 0.149498
2026-02-01 0.033705 0.043061 0.055171 0.072294 0.096375 0.129804 0.181143
2026-02-08 0.028749 0.038590 0.052154 0.072746 0.104187 0.152104 0.234272
2026-02-15 0.024827 0.034854 0.049498 0.073268 0.112571 0.178325 0.304775
2026-02-22 0.021894 0.032051 0.047717 0.074847 0.123398 0.212770 0.407036
2026-03-01 0.019400 0.029504 0.045893 0.076060 0.134336 0.252349 0.543809
2026-03-08 0.016909 0.026569 0.042933 0.074717 0.140504 0.286104 0.693218
2026-03-15 0.014335 0.023111 0.038499 0.069712 0.138107 0.301314 0.810491
2026-03-22 0.012935 0.021470 0.037038 0.070252 0.148120 0.351808 1.082369
2026-03-29 0.011925 0.020375 0.036409 0.072427 0.163041 0.424739 1.524086
2026-04-05 0.010883 0.019069 0.035151 0.072975 0.174466 0.496224 2.077762
2026-04-12 0.009932 0.017827 0.033870 0.073344 0.186338 0.580892 2.884144
2026-04-19 0.008938 0.016368 0.031895 0.071590 0.191747 0.649001 3.787570
2026-04-26 0.007965 0.014828 0.029504 0.068242 0.191189 0.695446 4.710833
2026-05-03 0.007372 0.014001 0.028585 0.068633 0.203587 0.813697 6.775656
2026-05-10 0.006852 0.013263 0.027752 0.069096 0.216887 0.954686 9.971441
2026-05-17 0.006444 0.012715 0.027285 0.070545 0.235148 1.151014 15.737477
2026-05-24 0.006060 0.012172 0.026743 0.071656 0.253132 1.378217 25.288684
2026-05-31 0.005606 0.011416 0.025546 0.070393 0.260489 1.548701 37.010717
2026-06-07 0.005055 0.010376 0.023465 0.065726 0.250002 1.567806 44.445088
2026-06-14 0.004773 0.009941 0.022928 0.066220 0.265372 1.846458 74.942914
2026-06-21 0.004574 0.009680 0.022822 0.068235 0.290391 2.288072 150.564156